Electile Dysfunction?

I've done some poking around using an electoral votes map (and man are there a lot out there; I'm using CQ's Scenario Builder), and taking past results into account along with national sentiment and the relative strength of both teams, I've come up with a slightly better prediction than my last.

McCain by a nose (274-264) or Obama by a fairly hefty margin (284-254). I came to this number after making a few educated guesses about the swing states this fall: giving New Hampshire and New Mexico to Obama, although their margins are razor-thin; giving Florida to McCain because the 2000 election is still on many minds, in both parties; and leaving Ohio up in the air. Like 2004, I believe Ohio's votes will determine the winner in the end.

The questions, then, are: how much of the 2004 landscape can Obama's campaign capture, how much will McCain gain from former Hillary supporters, and how much will Ron Paul be able to pull away from McCain?

If Paul has the same impact on this election as Nader had on the last two, then it could easily go to Obama. If, however, Paul's supporters recognize that McCain is closer to their interests than Obama, then it could go to McCain. Likewise, if enough former Hillary supporters defect to McCain (a possibility which is far from remote, given McCain's relatively moderate stance on social issues and the undeniable fact that some of them have been dying to vote for a woman since 1984), it could eat into Obama's hold on a few electoral votes.

Like the last two elections, this one will be exceptionally tight (and potentially very bitter for either side if their preferred candidate loses). Don't expect to see a lot of national unity coming out of this one.